Episode 781On air now

A 1.3km asteroid impact on the breadasket of America. Could You Survive?

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The short version

A 1.3-kilometer asteroid striking the American Midwest would deliver blast and thermal damage across a radius of 100 to 200 kilometers, with effects potentially reaching 600 kilometers or more. Asteroids above 1 kilometer and carrying impact energies above 40 gigatons can eject enough material into the atmosphere to cause global climatic effects; NASA modeling gives this outcome a 6 percent probability among the largest modeled impact sizes. Such impacts could affect substantial fractions of the world's population through prolonged atmospheric disruption, sunlight blockage, and crop failure. The Chicxulub impact 66 million years ago, caused by an asteroid approximately 6 miles wide, killed roughly 75 percent of Earth's plant and animal species and generated a global tsunami. NASA scientists assess that an asteroid large enough to cause widespread damage is highly unlikely to strike Earth during the next 100 years or more. (NASA Center for Near Earth Object Studies*, NASA Center for Near Earth Object Studies*, NASA Center for Near Earth Object Studies*, University of Michigan News*, NASA — 115 Years Ago: The Tunguska Asteroid Impact Event, )

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Going deeper

Blast damage occurs in 100 percent of modeled land-or-shore asteroid-impact cases; thermal damage occurs in about 54 percent of cases overall and is generally less severe than blast damage. For a hypothetical impact in Chicago, the immediate local effects would depend strongly on asteroid diameter, composition, speed, entry angle, and whether it exploded in the atmosphere or reached the ground. Serious damage would likely extend roughly 100 to 200 kilometers outward, with damage potentially extending about 600 kilometers or more for some impacts. (NASA Center for Near Earth Object Studies*, NASA Center for Near Earth Object Studies*)

Federal emergency-preparedness guidance does not establish one universal set of events that would occur in the United States or worldwide within three days; impacts depend on the hazard and location. Federal materials identify power outages, disrupted communications, the need for sheltering in place, sanitation challenges, medication needs, and limited access to food and water as conditions relevant to emergency planning. Federal guidance treats a loss of electrical power as an incident requiring immediate response actions within the first 72 hours. (Federal Emergency Management Agency, Are You Ready? An In-Depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness*, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Ready Emergency Supply List, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Healthcare Facilities and Power Outages*)

NASA modeling states that sub-micron particles released by a large asteroid impact could remain in the lower atmosphere for months or years, while researchers model potential sunlight blockage, climate changes, and crop effects. The largest potential impacts could eject enough material into the atmosphere to cause global climatic effects affecting substantial fractions of the world's population. (NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division*, NASA Center for Near Earth Object Studies*)

Geological evidence from the Chicxulub crater indicates that life returned to the crater approximately two to three years after the impact, while a high-productivity ecosystem developed there within about 30,000 years. (University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute*)

A 1.3km asteroid impact on the breadasket of America. Could You Survive?

The short version

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Why this matters right now

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How this has played out before

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The short version

From the archive

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Why this matters right now

Going deeper

How this has played out before

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