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Alert Pulse · Weekly report · Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026

Fire burns near Touchet as floods hit the Southwest and Plains

Evacuation orders near Touchet reached beyond the intended area. Flood emergencies in New Mexico and Kansas, confirmed Kansas tornadoes and California heat forecasts brought different instructions for residents.

SEP 30, 12 AM UTC · 71 IN THE HOURSEP 28OCT 4DISTINCT WARNINGS PER HOUR21435

Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026 · 4,143 warnings−10% per day vs Sep 21 – 27, 2026Each story below, on the day it peaked

  • Flash flooding · Sep 28–Oct 1

    the Southwest

    3 flash flood emergencies were declared

  • Flash flooding · Sep 30–Oct 1

    the Southern Plains

    A flash flood emergency was declared

  • Tornadoes and severe storms · Sep 29–30

    Texas and New Mexico

    A tornado was seen on the ground

    Named in the warnings: Amarillo, Canyon, Mescalero Park

  • Tornadoes and severe storms · Sep 30–Oct 1

    Kansas

    7 tornadoes were seen on the ground

    Named in the warnings: Ash Grove

  • Wildfire · Sep 30

    Washington

    3 orders to leave came from county agencies

Emergency messages told residents when to leave or seek higher ground, but could not establish who reached safety or what was lost.

Read the week

Where the week happened

Each numbered area is one of the stories below, drawn over the counties its warnings covered.

Map of the United States. 1: Wildfire in Washington, Sep 30. 2: Flash flooding in the Southwest, Sep 28–Oct 1. 3: Flash flooding in the Southern Plains, Sep 30–Oct 1. 4: Tornadoes and severe storms in Kansas, Sep 30–Oct 1. 5: Extreme heat in California, Oct 1.12345
  • Wildfire in Washington, Sep 30
  • Flash flooding in the Southwest, Sep 28–Oct 1
  • Flash flooding in the Southern Plains, Sep 30–Oct 1
  • Tornadoes and severe storms in Kansas, Sep 30–Oct 1
  • Extreme heat in California, Oct 1
Fig. 1. The counties each story covered, numbered as the report tells them. Colour groups the hazard: water, heat and fire, storms. Counties are the smallest area these warnings describe.
The same areas as a list
  • 1. Wildfire in Washington, September 30 · Heat and fire · 3 counties drawn
  • 2. Flash flooding in the Southwest and Texas, September 28 to October 1 · Water · 121 counties drawn
  • 3. Flash flooding in the Southern Plains and Northern Plains, September 30 to October 1 · Water · 142 counties drawn
  • 4. Tornadoes and severe storms in Kansas, September 30 to October 1 · Storms · 6 counties drawn
  • 5. Extreme heat in California, October 1 · Heat and fire · 45 counties drawn
Figure 02

When it happened

Each square is one day of the week, shaded by how many warnings went out.Shade is warnings that day. A number is the story it belongs to on the map. A ring marks a day on which news or officials reported what the event did to people.
SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSep 28: 387 warnings · story 2 on the map282Sep 29: 669 warnings · story 2 on the map292Sep 30: 813 warnings · story 1, 2, 3, 4 on the map · documented impact on people301·2Oct 1: 898 warnings · story 2, 3, 4, 5 on the map12·3Oct 2: 550 warnings2Oct 3: 345 warnings3Oct 4: 481 warnings4
  • Fewer warnings
  • More warnings
  • Impact on people reported
View as a table
DayWarningsStory on the mapDocumented impact on people
Sep 283872—
Sep 296692—
Sep 308131, 2, 3, 4Yes
Oct 18982, 3, 4, 5—
Oct 2550——
Oct 3345——
Oct 4481——

1Hatch Grade Fire closes Highway 12 near Touchet

  1. SEP 30, 12 AM UTC

    County order

    Walla Walla County, Washington

  2. SEP 30, 1 AM UTC

    County order

    Walla Walla County, Washington

  3. SEP 30, 1 AM UTC

    County order

    Walla Walla County, Washington

Map of the area this edition covers. 1: Wildfire in Washington, Sep 30.1
  • Wildfire — coloured as heat and fire. 3 counties in Washington, Sep 30.

Along Byerly and Burns roads near Touchet, evacuation orders remained in effect on September 30 as the Hatch Grade Fire burned near the state line, according to AOL. The fire near the Washington–Oregon border is marked 1 on the map.

The fire had started the previous day. That evening, Walla Walla County issued the instruction “Wildfire Evacuation Level 3 (GO)” and repeated its direction to leave. AOL’s report the following day put the fire’s estimated reach at 9,000 acres across Washington and Oregon.

Smoke had obscured drivers’ visibility and forced Highway 12 to close between Wallula Junction and the Touchet exit. AOL reported that the road reopened around 6 a.m. the following morning, while the evacuation orders remained in effect.

The evacuation area was not the same as the area that received the message. According to AOL, emergency management staff said an error entering the evacuation alert caused it to reach residents from Walla Walla to the Tri-Cities. Receiving that message did not mean every recipient was inside the area ordered to evacuate.

At Touchet High School, the American Red Cross evacuation center closed at 11:30 a.m. on September 30 because no displaced residents had used it, Elkhorn Media Group reported. That finding concerns use of the center, not whether residents left their homes. A review of AOL, Elkhorn Media Group and other local coverage found no reported deaths or injuries from the fire.

Wildfire alerts by the numbers: every published month, by state and county.

2Flash flood emergencies bring evacuation instructions to southern New Mexico

  1. SEP 28, 11 AM UTC

    County order

    Emery County, Utah

  2. SEP 28, 7 PM UTC

    First warning

    Lincoln County, Nevada

  3. SEP 28, 7 PM UTC

    Considerable threat

    Lincoln County, Nevada

  4. SEP 28, 11 PM UTC

    County order

    Socorro County, New Mexico

  5. SEP 29, 12 PM UTC

    County order

    Emery County, Utah

  6. SEP 29, 7 PM UTC

    Catastrophic threat

    Doña Ana County, New Mexico

  7. SEP 29, 7 PM UTC

    Particularly dangerous

    Doña Ana County, New Mexico

  8. SEP 29, 7 PM UTC

    Emergency declared

    Doña Ana County, New Mexico

  9. SEP 29, 10 PM UTC

    Catastrophic threat

    Doña Ana County, New Mexico

  10. SEP 29, 10 PM UTC

    Particularly dangerous

    Doña Ana County, New Mexico

  11. SEP 29, 10 PM UTC

    Emergency declared

    Doña Ana County, New Mexico

  12. SEP 30, 12 AM UTC

    Catastrophic threat

    Doña Ana County, New Mexico

Map of the area this edition covers. 1: Flash flooding in the Southwest, Sep 28–Oct 1.1
  • Flash flooding — coloured as water. 121 counties in the Southwest, Sep 28–Oct 1.

In Hatch Valley on the evening of September 29, the weather service told people to seek higher ground as it declared a flash flood emergency. The valley was a focus of the repeated southern New Mexico flood danger within the wider Southwest and Texas warning area marked 2 on the map.

The sequence had begun on September 28 with an Emery County sheriff’s message about possible flash flooding around Goblin Valley and the San Rafael area. A weather service warning followed in Lincoln County, Nevada. That evening, Socorro County officials told residents to shelter in place or evacuate to high ground.

Archived alert · Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026Sent September 30, 2026 · NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR X

On September 29, the weather service in El Paso/Santa Teresa issued an emergency for McLeod Dam. Its warning stated: “At 147 PM MDT, dam operators and county officials reported the imminent failure of McLeod Dam.” Doña Ana County emergency management also sent evacuation instructions. The reported danger of failure was grounds for action, not confirmation that the dam had failed.

Further emergency declarations followed that afternoon and evening. The weather service explained the Hatch Valley declaration this way: “At 652 PM MDT, Dona Ana County Emergency management requested the issuance of a Flash Flood Emergency for the Hatch Valley between the Sierra County Line and Rincon.” Although that warning carries the following date in the UTC record, residents experienced it during the local evening.

Doña Ana County faced repeated warnings through the main flood period, alongside Sierra and Luna counties. Warnings also extended into Texas and Arizona. The emergency language described the danger people were being told to avoid; it does not establish casualties or losses. No toll could be sourced for this story.

Flood alerts by the numbers: every published month, by state and county.

3Dodge City faces a flash flood emergency

  1. SEP 30, 2 PM UTC

    First warning

    Gage County, Nebraska

  2. OCT 1, 3 AM UTC

    Considerable threat

    Lancaster County, Nebraska

  3. OCT 1, 7 PM UTC

    Catastrophic threat

    Ford County, Kansas

  4. OCT 1, 7 PM UTC

    Particularly dangerous

    Ford County, Kansas

  5. OCT 1, 7 PM UTC

    Emergency declared

    Ford County, Kansas

  6. OCT 1, 9 PM UTC

    County order

    Ford County, Kansas

  7. OCT 5, 12 AM UTC

    Last warning

    Gage County, Nebraska

Map of the area this edition covers. 1: Flash flooding in the Southern Plains, Sep 30–Oct 1.1
  • Flash flooding — coloured as water. 142 counties in the Southern Plains, Sep 30–Oct 1.

In Dodge City on October 1, the weather service declared “FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DODGE CITY AND CENTRAL FORD COUNTY” and instructed people to seek higher ground. The city became the focus of the Kansas flood danger within the broader area marked 3 on the map.

The regional warning sequence had begun in Gage County, Nebraska, on September 30. That night, a flash flood warning in Lancaster County described a considerable damage threat. The following afternoon, the Ford County warning escalated to a particularly dangerous situation with a catastrophic damage threat. Those terms described the expected danger, not documented losses.

Archived alert · Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026Sent October 1, 2026 · NWS Dodge City KS
This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Later that afternoon, Ford County Communications gave residents a direct reason to stay off the roads: “Street level flooding in many areas of Dodge City and SW ford county please avoid travel”. The county’s message brought the emergency down to a practical decision for residents: whether to make a trip through streets already reported to be flooding.

The warning and county instruction establish what residents were told about the danger in Dodge City. They do not establish a casualty or damage total. No toll could be sourced for this story.

Flood alerts by the numbers: every published month, by state and county.

4Tornadoes are confirmed near Ash Valley and Milberger

  1. SEP 30, 8 PM UTC

    First warning

    Pawnee County, Kansas

  2. SEP 30, 8 PM UTC

    Tornado seen

    Pawnee County, Kansas

  3. OCT 1, 2 AM UTC

    Last warning

    Mitchell County, Kansas

Map of the area this edition covers. 1: Tornadoes and severe storms in Kansas, Sep 30–Oct 1.1
  • Tornadoes and severe storms — coloured as storms. 6 counties in Kansas, Sep 30–Oct 1.

Near Ash Valley at 3:50 p.m. on September 30, the weather service confirmed a tornado moving northeast. A later warning confirmed a tornado south of Milberger, making clear that these warnings concerned observed tornadoes rather than radar indications alone.

Earlier that afternoon, a tornado warning had gone out for Pawnee County at 3:20 p.m. The Kansas warning area, marked 4 on the map, subsequently extended northeast, and the Pawnee County warnings began identifying an observed tornado.

Archived alert · Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026Sent September 30, 2026 · NWS Wichita KS
At 412 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 6 miles south of Milberger, or 10 miles northwest of Hoisington, moving north at 35 mph.

The weather service in Dodge City reported: “At 350 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located very near Ash Valley, moving northeast at 30 mph.” That was the storm’s reported movement, not a measurement of the tornado’s wind speed.

At 4:12 p.m. that afternoon, the weather service in Wichita confirmed a tornado south of Milberger. A later confirmation placed a tornado southeast of the town, followed by another over Dorrance at 5:51 p.m. These successive reports show how the observed threat developed; they cannot be treated as a count of separate tornadoes.

A further confirmation followed near Lucas that evening, and the final tornado warning in this sequence ended in Mitchell County. No toll could be sourced for this story.

Tornado alerts by the numbers: every published month, by state and county.

5California faces dangerous October heat

  1. OCT 1, 7 AM UTC

    First warning

    Riverside County, California

  2. OCT 5, 12 AM UTC

    Last warning

    Riverside County, California

Map of the area this edition covers. 1: Extreme heat in California, Oct 1.1
  • Extreme heat — coloured as heat and fire. 45 counties in California, Oct 1.

In Riverside County on October 1, the weather service issued an extreme heat warning. It was part of the California heat threat marked 5 on the map, with forecasts calling for hot afternoons and warm nights in parts of the state.

That day, the weather service in Los Angeles/Oxnard described the forecast for its area: “Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures up to 85 at the coast and 100 in the mountains and Cuyama valley.” The contrast mattered for residents traveling inland from cooler coastal locations.

Archived alert · Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026Sent October 2, 2026 · NWS Eureka CA
High temperatures up to 101 with overnight temperatures over 65. Moderate to localized high HeatRisk.

In its October 1 forecast, the weather service in Hanford stated: “High temperatures up to 103 expected.” That was a forecast for its warning area, not an observed high or a temperature reported everywhere in California.

The messages established the heat residents were being told to prepare for. They did not document measured temperatures, heat illnesses or other losses. No toll could be sourced for this story.

Heat alerts by the numbers: every published month, by state and county.

How BePrepared monitors this, all year

This report exists because we already monitor the whole country. Every couple of minutes, around the clock, we read the emergency alerts going out across all fifty states and territories, and we keep them. A month of that record is what you have just read.

The national picture is the part most people never see. What matters to you is much smaller: which of these warnings would have reached your street, and what the risks around you look like on an ordinary day.

That is what BePrepared is for. Put in your ZIP code and you get the picture for where you live — the flood, fire and storm history around you, the dams and facilities nearby, and a plan for your household rather than a general one. With a free account you can keep a watchlist of the places you care about, like your home, your parents' address, and your kids' school, and set what you want to hear about.

Where it hit hardest

Counted as distinct warnings, and as the days a county spent under one. A county is the smallest area these warnings describe.

Warnings by region

  • Southwest181
  • Texas148
  • Southern Plains93
  • Northern Plains62
  • Upper Midwest51

Most days under a warning

  • Marshall County, KS8 days
  • Lake County, IL8 days
  • Scott County, IA8 days
  • Clinton County, IA8 days
  • San Bernardino County, CA7 days
  • Lake County, FL7 days
  • Volusia County, FL7 days
  • Gage County, NE6 days
Figure 03Embed this chart

Where the warnings landed

Every county that received a warning this week, coloured and scaled by how many; the faint dots received none.1,718 of the country's counties received at least one warning; the faint dots are the counties that received none, and a quiet county is not a safe county. Each county wears its MOST frequent kind of warning and its dot scales with how many it received; the month's three biggest kinds carry color and every other kind wears gray, with the panels below giving each kind its own map. The full per-county mix is in the CSV. 460 warned areas — marine zones and territories — have no county position on this map, about 17% of county-level warning volume. They are still counted in every figure and table.
Orange, CA: 22 warnings · mostly extreme heatCook, IL: 22 warnings · mostly floodingGreeley, KS: 22 warnings · mostly floodingPottawatomie, KS: 22 warnings · mostly floodingAndrew, MO: 22 warnings · mostly floodingBuchanan, MO: 22 warnings · mostly floodingClay, NE: 22 warnings · mostly floodingChaves, NM: 22 warnings · mostly floodingLove, OK: 22 warnings · mostly floodingHudspeth, TX: 22 warnings · mostly floodingGreenlee, AZ: 23 warnings · mostly floodingYavapai, AZ: 23 warnings · mostly floodingBroward, FL: 23 warnings · mostly floodingWill, IL: 23 warnings · mostly floodingTama, IA: 23 warnings · mostly floodingHaskell, KS: 23 warnings · mostly floodingLogan, KS: 23 warnings · mostly floodingWashington, KS: 23 warnings · mostly floodingGray, TX: 23 warnings · mostly tornadoesCoconino, AZ: 24 warnings · mostly floodingDuval, FL: 24 warnings · mostly floodingChariton, MO: 24 warnings · mostly floodingLancaster, NE: 24 warnings · mostly floodingThayer, NE: 24 warnings · mostly floodingCurry, NM: 24 warnings · mostly floodingLincoln, NM: 24 warnings · mostly floodingLlano, TX: 24 warnings · mostly floodingMobile, AL: 25 warnings · mostly floodingGila, AZ: 25 warnings · mostly floodingMiami-Dade, FL: 25 warnings · mostly floodingOkaloosa, FL: 25 warnings · mostly floodingCarroll, MO: 25 warnings · mostly floodingLea, NM: 25 warnings · mostly floodingSanta Fe, NM: 25 warnings · mostly floodingKane, UT: 25 warnings · mostly floodingNassau, FL: 26 warnings · mostly floodingMarion, IA: 26 warnings · mostly floodingSaunders, NE: 26 warnings · mostly floodingArmstrong, TX: 26 warnings · mostly floodingEl Paso, TX: 26 warnings · mostly floodingParmer, TX: 26 warnings · mostly floodingRussell, KS: 27 warnings · mostly tornadoesSeward, NE: 27 warnings · mostly floodingWebster, NE: 27 warnings · mostly floodingBaldwin, AL: 28 warnings · mostly floodingCharlton, GA: 28 warnings · mostly floodingFord, KS: 28 warnings · mostly floodingLincoln, KS: 28 warnings · mostly tornadoesCarson, TX: 28 warnings · mostly floodingBlack Hawk, IA: 29 warnings · mostly floodingCloud, KS: 29 warnings · mostly floodingEddy, NM: 29 warnings · mostly severe stormsJewell, KS: 30 warnings · mostly floodingGage, NE: 30 warnings · mostly floodingCamden, GA: 31 warnings · mostly floodingGray, KS: 31 warnings · mostly floodingEdwards, TX: 31 warnings · mostly floodingOldham, TX: 32 warnings · mostly floodingMarshall, KS: 33 warnings · mostly floodingNavajo, AZ: 34 warnings · mostly floodingLake, IL: 34 warnings · mostly floodingPolk, IA: 34 warnings · mostly floodingMitchell, KS: 34 warnings · mostly floodingCochise, AZ: 35 warnings · mostly floodingGrant, NM: 35 warnings · mostly floodingOtero, NM: 37 warnings · mostly floodingMaricopa, AZ: 38 warnings · mostly floodingSan Bernardino, CA: 39 warnings · mostly floodingNuckolls, NE: 39 warnings · mostly floodingMonroe, FL: 40 warnings · mostly floodingSocorro, NM: 42 warnings · mostly floodingSaline, NE: 44 warnings · mostly floodingDeaf Smith, TX: 45 warnings · mostly floodingMohave, AZ: 48 warnings · mostly floodingVal Verde, TX: 48 warnings · mostly floodingGraham, AZ: 49 warnings · mostly floodingTerrell, TX: 49 warnings · mostly severe stormsLuna, NM: 50 warnings · mostly floodingSierra, NM: 54 warnings · mostly floodingPima, AZ: 58 warnings · mostly floodingPinal, AZ: 60 warnings · mostly floodingPotter, TX: 68 warnings · mostly floodingRandall, TX: 74 warnings · mostly floodingDoña Ana, NM: 83 warnings · mostly floodingDoña Ana, NM · 83Randall, TX · 74Potter, TX · 68
  • Flooding
  • Severe storms
  • Extreme heat
  • Everything else

Flooding7,263 warnings · 937 counties

Severe storms454 warnings · 115 counties

Extreme heat258 warnings · 52 counties

Tornadoes188 warnings · 40 counties

Safety & civil115 warnings · 82 counties

Winter110 warnings · 40 counties

Fire56 warnings · 27 counties

View as a table
CountyStateWarningsMost frequent kind
Doña AnaNM83Flooding
RandallTX74Flooding
PotterTX68Flooding
PinalAZ60Flooding
PimaAZ58Flooding
SierraNM54Flooding
LunaNM50Flooding
GrahamAZ49Flooding
TerrellTX49Severe storms
Val VerdeTX48Flooding
MohaveAZ48Flooding
Deaf SmithTX45Flooding
SalineNE44Flooding
SocorroNM42Flooding
MonroeFL40Flooding
NuckollsNE39Flooding
San BernardinoCA39Flooding
MaricopaAZ38Flooding
7703338Everything else
TinianMP38Flooding

The human record

What it cost, and who reported it

These figures are not ours. Our archive records that a warning was issued, never what happened next, so every number here comes from the organization named beside it and was retrieved on October 6, 2026.

  • Toll

    9,000acres estimated across Washington and Oregon

    A September 30 report put the Hatch Grade Fire near Touchet in Walla Walla County at an estimated 9,000 acres across the Washington–Oregon border, following its start on September 29.

    Source: AOL, reporting by Cameron Probert

    ArchiveOur records show wildfire warnings covering this area on September 30.

  • Closed

    Highway 12 between Wallula Junction and the Touchet exit reopened around 6 a.m. on September 30 after fire smoke obscuring drivers’ visibility had forced its closure.

    Source: AOL, reporting by Cameron Probert

  • Response

    Walla Walla Emergency Management ordered Level 3 evacuations along Byerly and Burns roads, and evacuation orders remained in effect on September 30.

    Source: AOL, reporting by Cameron Probert

  • Response

    The emergency management team said an error entering the evacuation alert caused it to reach residents from Walla Walla to the Tri-Cities.

    Source: AOL, reporting by Cameron Probert

  • Response

    Elkhorn Media Group reported that the American Red Cross evacuation center established at Touchet High School closed at 11:30 a.m. on September 30 because no displaced residents had used it.

    Source: Elkhorn Media Group

For one of these stories, research looked for reported deaths and injuries and found none. As far as the record shows, no one was hurt.

The numbers behind this report

Every warning counted once, by type, place, day and hour, with the method below and the whole table downloadable at the end of the page.

Distinct warnings
4,143
carried by 6,848 messages (1.65× echo)
Counties reached
2,178
across 50 states and territories
Overnight
1,169
10pm–6am local · 16 of the most severe
Effective on arrival
99%
take effect the moment they are sent

What was warned about

Alert typeWarningsMessages
Flood Warning7141,077
Flood Advisory561567
Flash Flood Warning503503
Small Craft Advisory4271,802
Special Weather Statement314316
Flood Watch274375
Severe Thunderstorm Warning231231
Special Marine Warning166166

Where

StateWarnings
TX663
KS358
NM307
AZ285
FL197
IA165
NE149
CA124

The busiest hour of the period was 8pm local time, with 259 warnings.

Counties reached most often

CountyStateWarnings
Doña AnaNM83
RandallTX74
PotterTX68
PinalAZ60
PimaAZ58
SierraNM54
LunaNM50
GrahamAZ49
TerrellTX49
Val VerdeTX48

A county with no alerts is not a county with no risk. It can mean a quiet period, or a hazard that this feed does not carry.

Figure 04Embed this chart

When the warnings arrived

Distinct warnings by the local hour they were sent, across the whole period.Local time in the place each alert was sent to. 1,169 arrived between 10pm and 6am, 16 of them at the highest severity.
010020012am: 124 warnings1am: 143 warnings2am: 169 warnings3am: 148 warnings4am: 127 warnings5am: 126 warnings6am: 128 warnings7am: 94 warnings8am: 149 warnings9am: 204 warnings10am: 170 warnings11am: 177 warnings12pm: 148 warnings1pm: 185 warnings2pm: 210 warnings3pm: 202 warnings4pm: 208 warnings5pm: 192 warnings6pm: 214 warnings7pm: 234 warnings8pm: 259 warnings9pm: 200 warnings10pm: 183 warnings11pm: 149 warnings25912am3am6am9am12pm3pm6pm9pmShaded hours are overnight, 10pm to 6am local
View as a table
Local hourWarningsOf which most severe
12am1243
1am1430
2am1690
3am1481
4am1270
5am1261
6am1281
7am941
8am1491
9am2043
10am1702
11am1771
12pm1482
1pm1853
2pm2101
3pm20212
4pm20820
5pm19213
6pm21415
7pm23434
8pm25925
9pm2005
10pm1839
11pm1492
Figure 05Embed this chart

The feed repeats itself

How many messages the feed carried, how many distinct warnings they represent, and how many counties those reached.An echo rate of 1.65× — for every warning issued, 1.65 messages carried it. Reporting messages as warnings would overstate this week by 2,705.
Messages received3,532 of them updates to a warning already sent6,848Distinct warningswhat every figure in this report counts4,143Counties reacheda warning usually covers several at once2,178
View as a table
StageCount
Messages received6,848
Of which updates3,532
Of which cancels0
Distinct warnings4,143
Counties reached2,178
Figure 06Embed this chart

How severe they were

Distinct warnings by the severity the issuing agency assigned.
MinorMinor: 1,2761,276ModerateModerate: 667667SevereSevere: 2,0102,010ExtremeExtreme: 155155Not classifiedNot classified: 3535
  • Minor
  • Moderate
  • Severe
  • Extreme
  • Not classified
View as a table
SeverityWarnings
Minor1,276
Moderate667
Severe2,010
Extreme155
Not classified35
Figure 07Embed this chart

What people were told to do

The share of warnings carrying each instruction to the public.These are response counts. They record the instruction an alert carried, not the hazard behind it.
Avoid: 2,538 (61.3%)Avoid 61%Follow instructions: 564 (13.6%)Prepare: 357 (8.6%)Everything else: 684 (16.5%)
  • Avoid
  • Follow instructions
  • Prepare
  • Everything else

Where those instructions came from

  • Shelter (327) — 145 corroborated as flood, 67 corroborated as tornado, 115 with no hazard stated in the alert text
  • Evacuate (7) — 4 corroborated as flood, 3 corroborated as wildfire
View as a table
ResponseWarningsShare
Avoid2,53861.3%
Follow instructions56413.6%
Prepare3578.6%
Shelter3277.9%
Monitor2977.2%
Unstated451.1%
All clear80.2%
Evacuate70.2%

What this report cannot tell you

  • This report records the warnings that were sent: when, where, and what people were told to do. It cannot say whether anyone received them, whether they acted, or whether they had anywhere to go.
  • Deaths, injuries, damage and acreage come from the news organizations and agencies named beside each figure. Our own records measure warnings, never outcomes, and are never the source for a toll.
  • A county is the smallest area these alerts describe, so "a county was warned" does not mean every street in it was at risk.
  • Where no figure has been reported, this report says so rather than estimating.

How these numbers were counted

Counted SEP 28, 2026 – OCT 5, 2026 · Frozen at publish

The alert figures in this report — how many warnings, where, when, and how severe — come from the alerts this archive received from FEMA IPAWS and the National Weather Service between September 28, 2026 and October 5, 2026, counted once and frozen when the report was published.

Deaths, damage and acreage are not ours and are never drawn from this archive. Each is attributed to the organization that reported it, above.

What was counted

  • cap_status = 'Actual' (tests, exercises and demos excluded)
  • SAME test codes RWT/RMT/DMO/NPT/NAT excluded, and any event type containing "test"
  • An event is the first message of a CAP identifier chain; updates and cancels are counted separately
  • Alert time is cap_sent, falling back to ingest time when the feed omits it
  • Counties come from the alert geocodes (SAME/FIPS); statewide codes are not counted as counties

What these numbers cannot tell you

  • Lead time is the gap between when an alert was sent and when it takes effect. This archive collapses CAP onset into effective, so for many products those are the same instant by design — it is not a measure of forecast warning time.
  • 89 alerts expire exactly 24 hours after they were sent because the feed omitted an expiry and the ingest substitutes a default. They are excluded from the duration distribution rather than charted as real forecasts.
  • Evacuation and shelter figures are RESPONSE counts. They record what people were told to do, not what caused it; where the alert text does not name a hazard, the row is reported as unstated.
  • Hour-of-day figures use each alert’s own local time, resolved from its state. Alerts spanning several states resolve to the first state in their geocodes.
  • National Weather Service alerts began arriving in volume on 2026-06-12. Earlier months hold only the handful that reached this archive by other routes, so they undercount weather alerts badly and cannot be compared with later months.
  • Population figures are not available for these counties, so alert counts are reported per county and never per resident.

This archive

Collection began 2026-03-27. National Weather Service alerts began arriving in volume on 2026-06-12 (a small number reached the archive by other routes from 2026-03-31). Months from 2026-07-01 onward can be compared with each other; earlier ones cannot.

For newsrooms and researchers

Use these figures

Figures v1 · Frozen

Journalists, emergency managers and researchers are welcome to reuse anything in this report, including the underlying counts, with attribution. Version 1 of these figures is frozen: if a correction changes them, it appears above as a dated note rather than silently replacing what you cited.

Download the figures (CSV)Ask about the data
Cite this report
BePreparedSolutions.co. "Fire burns near Touchet as floods hit the Southwest and Plains." Alert Pulse, October 6, 2026. https://bepreparedsolutions.co/reports/alert-pulse/week-2026-09-28
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