Where the week happened
Each numbered area is one of the stories below, drawn over the counties its warnings covered.
- Flash flooding in the Southeast, Oct 9–11
- Tornadoes and severe storms in North Carolina and South Carolina, Oct 11
- Flash flooding in California and Arizona, Oct 11
- Wildfire in California, Oct 8–9
The same areas as a list
- 1. Flash flooding in the Southeast and Gulf Coast, October 9 to 11 · Water · 91 counties drawn
- 2. Tornadoes and severe storms in North Carolina and South Carolina, October 11 · Storms · 39 counties drawn
- 3. Flash flooding in California and Arizona, October 11 · Water · 6 counties drawn
- 4. Wildfire in California, October 8 to 9 · Heat and fire · 2 counties drawn
When it happened
- Fewer warnings
- More warnings
- Impact on people reported
View as a table
| Day | Warnings | Story on the map | Documented impact on people |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | 435 | — | — |
| Oct 6 | 290 | — | — |
| Oct 7 | 295 | — | — |
| Oct 8 | 410 | 4 | Yes |
| Oct 9 | 630 | 1, 4 | Yes |
| Oct 10 | 767 | 1 | Yes |
| Oct 11 | 783 | 1, 2, 3 | Yes |
1Isaias leaves deaths in Florida and Alabama and flooding farther inland
OCT 8, 3 PM UTC
County order
Okaloosa County, Florida
OCT 9, 2 AM UTC
First warning
Leon County, Florida
OCT 9, 1 PM UTC
County order
Santa Rosa County, Florida
OCT 9, 9 PM UTC
Considerable threat
Bay County, Florida
OCT 10, 12 AM UTC
Catastrophic threat
Okaloosa County, Florida
OCT 10, 12 AM UTC
Particularly dangerous
Okaloosa County, Florida
OCT 10, 12 AM UTC
Emergency declared
Okaloosa County, Florida
OCT 12, 12 AM UTC
Last warning
Leon County, Florida
- Flash flooding — coloured as water. 91 counties in the Southeast, Oct 9–11.
In Gulf Breeze, Jayme Mitich sheltered as Isaias tore away part of her apartment roof, she told the Associated Press in an account published October 10. “The noise got so loud, and I just kept hearing things break and crash into everything,” she said. Her account described the wind damage accompanying the Gulf Coast flooding shown inland as well (1 on the map).
The evacuation orders began in Okaloosa County on October 8, directing people in zones A and B to leave. A flood warning followed that evening in Leon County. The next morning, Santa Rosa County issued its October 9 order: “Navarre Beach EVACUATE NOW”. By late afternoon, the weather service was warning of a considerable flash flood damage threat in Bay County, where law enforcement reported flooded roads.
This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
At 7:14 p.m. Central on October 9, the weather service in Mobile escalated the warning for Okaloosa County to a flash flood emergency, with a catastrophic damage threat. Its headline read: “FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL OKALOOSA COUNTY, FLORIDA”. The warning also designated the flooding a particularly dangerous situation.
By Saturday, the Associated Press reported at least four Isaias-related deaths in Florida and Alabama, not a toll confined to flooding. WUWF reported a generator-related carbon monoxide death in Escambia County; the Associated Press documented deaths involving fallen trees in Alabama. The disruption continued: approximately 226,000 electricity customers in the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama remained without power Sunday evening, according to the Associated Press.
Farther inland, the Associated Press reported Sunday that rescuers in Burke County saved two unhoused people and their dog after Catawba River floodwaters overtook their campsite. WBTV reported that bystanders pulled a driver from a submerged vehicle in the county before emergency responders arrived. These were the kinds of low-lying places covered by the weather service's Sunday flood warnings, which specifically identified campgrounds and low-water crossings.
Flood alerts by the numbers: every published month, by state and county.
2A tornado damages Raleigh homes as farm buildings fall near Clarendon
OCT 11, 12 PM UTC
First warning
Anson County, North Carolina
OCT 11, 3 PM UTC
Tornado seen
Cumberland County, North Carolina
OCT 11, 5 PM UTC
Particularly dangerous
Franklin County, North Carolina
OCT 11, 6 PM UTC
Particularly dangerous
Duplin County, North Carolina
OCT 11, 8 PM UTC
Last warning
Beaufort County, North Carolina
- Tornadoes and severe storms — coloured as storms. 39 counties in North Carolina and South Carolina, Oct 11.
In Raleigh's Neuse Crossing neighborhood during the October 11 storms, Erik Grubbs reached his bathroom just before a window blew out. “As soon as I closed this door right here and took shelter right in here, this window blew out,” he told WRAL afterward. His roof had caved in, and he planned to stay with a friend during repairs. His home was among the damaged properties in the Carolina storm area (2 on the map).
The morning's tornado warnings began in Anson County, followed later that morning by a warning reporting an observed tornado in Cumberland County. The weather service in Raleigh subsequently wrote: “At 1203 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Fayetteville, moving northeast at 35 mph.” These warnings described confirmed tornadoes, not solely rotation detected by radar.
At 118 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Wake Forest, or 9 miles northeast of Raleigh, moving northeast at 25 mph.
By 1:09 p.m. Eastern, a Franklin County tornado warning carried the designation of a particularly dangerous situation. A warning for Duplin County received the same designation at 2:03 p.m. After the storms, the News & Observer reported that downed trees and power lines blocked a highway in Louisburg, where residents were clearing debris and a barn had lost part of its roof.
WRAL documented damaged homes and downed trees in northeast Raleigh on Sunday. Near Clarendon, North Carolina Express reported damage to four structures during that day's storms, citing the weather service. The weather service's subsequent survey documented destroyed open farm buildings along Roseland Road and an empty grain bin lifted from its foundation and shifted. North Carolina Express also reported downed power lines and an outage there.
No deaths or injuries were reported in the agency and news coverage checked for these storms. That is a finding about the reporting, not proof that everyone escaped harm. WRAL specifically said no injuries had been reported as of its 4 p.m. October 11 account of damage in northeast Raleigh and Fayetteville.
Tornado alerts by the numbers: every published month, by state and county.
3Surf drives Long Beach residents from homes; inland flooding strands motorists
OCT 11, 5 AM UTC
First warning
Imperial County, California
OCT 11, 5 AM UTC
Considerable threat
Imperial County, California
OCT 11, 1 PM UTC
County order
Riverside County, California
OCT 11, 1 PM UTC
County order
Riverside County, California
OCT 11, 5 PM UTC
Last warning
La Paz County, Arizona
OCT 11, 9 PM UTC
County order
Los Angeles County, California
- Flash flooding — coloured as water. 6 counties in California and Arizona, Oct 11.
In Long Beach on October 11, surf smashed through windows and doors and sent seawater into living rooms, AccuWeather reported. Residents were forced from homes, and inspectors deemed multiple structures unsafe to enter. This was coastal surf damage, distinct from the inland flash flooding across Southern California and western Arizona (3 on the map).
At least eight Long Beach structures remained red-tagged on October 11, FOX 11 Los Angeles reported. That was an ongoing count of unsafe buildings, not buildings newly destroyed that day. Crews reinforced shoreline sand berms and positioned equipment in vulnerable neighborhoods. CBS News Los Angeles reported that evacuation advisories for Naples Island, Treasure Island and the Peninsula were lifted that day.
Inland, a flash flood warning carrying a considerable damage threat had begun in Imperial County on Saturday night. At 5:59 a.m. Pacific on Sunday, the weather service in Phoenix replaced a flood advisory for portions of Imperial and Riverside counties with a flash flood warning because the danger continued. Riverside County followed that morning with local messages headed “Alert RivCo: FLOOD ADVISORY/AVISO DE INUNDACIN”.
In Riverside County on October 11, firefighters rescued two motorists from flooded vehicles, MyNewsLA reported. They escorted a motorist to higher ground near Domenigoni Parkway and Leon Road in Winchester. In the other rescue, an inflatable boat retrieved a motorist from a vehicle roof near East San Jacinto Avenue and Murrieta Road. Flooding also kept a section of Leon Road closed.
Near Parker, Arizona, floodwater turned the Desert Bar's dirt access road into a waterway on Sunday. FOX 10 Phoenix reported that management closed the bar and adjoining Dusty Boot Cookhouse to protect visitors and staff. No deaths or injuries were reported in the coverage checked for this coastal and inland flooding; MyNewsLA specifically reported no injuries in the Riverside County vehicle rescues.
Flood alerts by the numbers: every published month, by state and county.
4Crews stop fires near Lake Isabella and Gorman after evacuation orders
OCT 8, 11 PM UTC
County order
Los Angeles County, California
OCT 8, 11 PM UTC
County order
Los Angeles County, California
OCT 9, 12 AM UTC
County order
Los Angeles County, California
- Wildfire — coloured as heat and fire. 2 counties in California, Oct 8–9.
At Kern Valley High School in Lake Isabella on October 9, an evacuation shelter opened as the Cyrus Fire threatened structures east of town, CAL FIRE reported. Officials requested additional aircraft and ground crews. The shelter gave residents a place to go during the fire evacuations in Kern and Los Angeles counties (4 on the map).
The previous day, October 8, the Danny Fire near Gorman had prompted an evacuation order near Bald Mountain, NBC Los Angeles reported. Residents west of Old Ridge Road and east of the freeway were told to leave. The California Highway Patrol closed Interstate 5 in both directions during the fire, with some lanes reopening that evening.
Near Lake Isabella on Friday, Kern County emergency officials sent the message: “Kern County Sheriff: PREPARE to leave. Wildfire in area. Facebook.com/ReadyKern for update”. An evacuation order update followed in the afternoon, along with evacuation warning updates. CAL FIRE also identified shelter arrangements for large animals and assistance for people needing small-animal shelter. No deaths or injuries were reported in the fire-agency and news coverage checked for these fires.
Near Gorman, crews stopped the Danny Fire's forward progress Thursday after it burned 150 acres, NBC Los Angeles reported. By Friday evening, CAL FIRE reported that the Cyrus Fire's forward progress had stopped near Lake Isabella after burning 450 acres. Those reports establish acreage and the halt in spread, not a count of homes burned.
Wildfire alerts by the numbers: every published month, by state and county.
How BePrepared monitors this, all year
This report exists because we already monitor the whole country. Every couple of minutes, around the clock, we read the emergency alerts going out across all fifty states and territories, and we keep them. A month of that record is what you have just read.
The national picture is the part most people never see. What matters to you is much smaller: which of these warnings would have reached your street, and what the risks around you look like on an ordinary day.
That is what BePrepared is for. Put in your ZIP code and you get the picture for where you live — the flood, fire and storm history around you, the dams and facilities nearby, and a plan for your household rather than a general one. With a free account you can keep a watchlist of the places you care about, like your home, your parents' address, and your kids' school, and set what you want to hear about.
Where it hit hardest
Counted as distinct warnings, and as the days a county spent under one. A county is the smallest area these warnings describe.
Warnings by region
- Southeast180
- Gulf Coast38
- Upper Midwest35
- Southwest28
- California27
Most days under a warning
- Okaloosa County, FL8 days
- Nassau County, FL8 days
- Baker County, FL8 days
- Charlton County, GA8 days
- San Bernardino County, CA8 days
- Clinton County, IA8 days
- Scott County, IA8 days
- St. Johns County, FL7 days
Where the warnings landed
- Flooding
- Hurricane & tropical
- Fire
- Everything else
Flooding4,110 warnings · 711 counties
Hurricane & tropical2,622 warnings · 263 counties
Fire523 warnings · 97 counties
Tornadoes419 warnings · 93 counties
Extreme heat351 warnings · 50 counties
Severe storms319 warnings · 83 counties
Winter180 warnings · 73 counties
Safety & civil175 warnings · 112 counties
View as a table
| County | State | Warnings | Most frequent kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| Okaloosa | FL | 94 | Flooding |
| Santa Rosa | FL | 83 | Flooding |
| San Diego | CA | 64 | Flooding |
| Escambia | FL | 58 | Hurricane & tropical |
| Duval | FL | 57 | Flooding |
| St. Johns | FL | 57 | Flooding |
| Riverside | CA | 57 | Flooding |
| Baldwin | AL | 56 | Hurricane & tropical |
| Mobile | AL | 51 | Hurricane & tropical |
| Nassau | FL | 43 | Flooding |
| Franklin | FL | 42 | Hurricane & tropical |
| Clay | FL | 42 | Flooding |
| Gulf | FL | 41 | Hurricane & tropical |
| San Bernardino | CA | 41 | Flooding |
| Charleston | SC | 40 | Flooding |
| Walton | FL | 39 | Hurricane & tropical |
| 77775 | 38 | Everything else | |
| Taylor | FL | 38 | Hurricane & tropical |
| Covington | AL | 38 | Flooding |
| Imperial | CA | 36 | Flooding |
The human record
What it cost, and who reported it
These figures are not ours. Our archive records that a warning was issued, never what happened next, so every number here comes from the organization named beside it and was retrieved on October 13, 2026.
Toll
at least4deaths
The Associated Press reported at least four Hurricane Isaias-related deaths in Florida and Alabama.
Source: Associated Press
ArchiveOur records place this event in Florida between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-11.
Toll
2deaths
4people hospitalized
Escambia County Sheriff Chip Simmons reported two storm-related deaths, including a generator-related carbon monoxide death, and four other people hospitalized.
Source: WUWF
Toll
2deaths
Alabama officials reported one death from a tree falling onto a Birmingham house and another in a vehicle crash involving a fallen tree in Barbour County.
Source: Associated Press
ArchiveOur records place this event in Alabama between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-11.
Displaced
50residents relocated
The Florida National Guard assisted with relocating 50 residents with special needs during the hurricane response.
Source: Florida Department of Transportation
ArchiveOur records place this event in Florida between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-11.
Rescue
1person rescued
Henderson County rescuers and the Hendersonville Fire Department successfully rescued one person after deploying at approximately 8:38 p.m. on October 10.
Source: FOX Carolina
ArchiveOur records show flash flooding warnings covering this area on October 10.
Toll
4structures damaged
North Carolina Express, citing the National Weather Service, reported damage to four structures in Clarendon, Columbus County, during the October 11 storms.
Source: North Carolina Express
ArchiveOur records show tornadoes and severe storms warnings covering this area on October 11.
Toll
WRAL reported that no injuries had been reported as of its 4 p.m. account of confirmed storm damage in northeast Raleigh and Fayetteville.
Source: WRAL
Displaced
WRAL reported that Grubbs' roof had caved in, glass and insulation covered his living room, and he planned to stay with a friend while his home was repaired.
Source: WRAL
In their words
Neuse Crossing resident Erik Grubbs told WRAL that a window blew out immediately after he took shelter in his bathroom.
“As soon as I closed this door right here and took shelter right in here, this window blew out.”
Erik Grubbs, Homeowner in Raleigh's Neuse Crossing neighborhood, to WRAL Source: WRAL
In their words
Chadbourn Town Manager David Wise told Columbus County News that the town experienced nothing unusual during the storm.
“We had nothing unusual”
David Wise, Chadbourn Town Manager, to Columbus County News Source: Columbus County News
Toll
No injuries reported in two rescue incidents
No injuries were reported in either of the two Riverside County flooded-vehicle rescues on October 11.
Source: MyNewsLA
ArchiveOur records show flash flooding warnings covering this area on October 11.
Displaced
AccuWeather reported that flooding forced Long Beach residents from their homes and that building inspectors deemed multiple structures unsafe to enter, without providing a displacement count.
Source: AccuWeather
Rescue
2motorists rescued
Firefighters rescued two motorists from flooded vehicles on October 11, escorting one to higher ground near Domenigoni Parkway and Leon Road in Winchester and using an inflatable boat to retrieve the other from a vehicle roof near East San Jacinto Avenue and Murrieta Road.
Source: MyNewsLA
In their words
Long Beach resident Henry Starnes told FOX 11 that he had stocked his home with sandbags.
“I definitely have the sandbags, I have 10 in my house just to be sure.”
Henry Starnes, Long Beach resident, to FOX 11 Los Angeles Source: FOX 11 Los Angeles
Damage
At least8structures remained red-tagged
FOX 11 reported on October 11 that at least eight Long Beach structures remained red-tagged, identifying an ongoing unsafe-building count rather than a count of buildings newly destroyed that day.
Source: FOX 11 Los Angeles
Toll
450acres burned
CAL FIRE reported that the Cyrus Fire near Lake Isabella in Kern County had burned 450 acres by 7:07 p.m. on October 9, 2026.
Source: CAL FIRE
ArchiveOur records show wildfire warnings covering this area on October 9.
Toll
150acres burned
NBC Los Angeles reported that the Danny Fire in the Gorman area of Los Angeles County burned 150 acres on October 8 before crews stopped its forward progress.
Source: NBC Los Angeles
ArchiveOur records show wildfire warnings covering this area on October 8.
Toll
Los Angeles County Fire Department Captain Aaron Katon told the Los Angeles Times there were no known injuries from the Danny Fire.
Source: Los Angeles Times
Displaced
An evacuation shelter for the Cyrus Fire opened at Kern Valley High School, 3340 Erskine Creek Road in Lake Isabella, on October 9.
Source: CAL FIRE
Closed
The California Highway Patrol closed northbound Interstate 5 at Smokey Bear Road and southbound Interstate 5 at Highway 138 during the Danny Fire, with some lanes reopening before 8 p.m. on October 8.
Source: NBC Los Angeles
ArchiveOur records show wildfire warnings covering this area on October 8.
For 3 of these stories, research looked for reported deaths and injuries and found none. As far as the record shows, no one was hurt.
The numbers behind this report
Every warning counted once, by type, place, day and hour, with the method below and the whole table downloadable at the end of the page.
What was warned about
| Alert type | Warnings | Messages |
|---|---|---|
| Small Craft Advisory | 613 | 2,673 |
| Flood Advisory | 294 | 295 |
| Flood Warning | 211 | 298 |
| Special Weather Statement | 191 | 195 |
| Flash Flood Warning | 189 | 189 |
| Tornado Warning | 174 | 174 |
| Special Marine Warning | 159 | 159 |
| Flood Watch | 146 | 170 |
Where
| State | Warnings |
|---|---|
| FL | 462 |
| NC | 285 |
| CA | 273 |
| AL | 179 |
| GA | 173 |
| SC | 118 |
| AZ | 93 |
| IA | 84 |
The busiest hour of the period was 11am local time, with 204 warnings.
Counties reached most often
| County | State | Warnings |
|---|---|---|
| Okaloosa | FL | 94 |
| Santa Rosa | FL | 83 |
| San Diego | CA | 64 |
| Escambia | FL | 58 |
| Duval | FL | 57 |
| St. Johns | FL | 57 |
| Riverside | CA | 57 |
| Baldwin | AL | 56 |
| Mobile | AL | 51 |
| Nassau | FL | 43 |
A county with no alerts is not a county with no risk. It can mean a quiet period, or a hazard that this feed does not carry.
When the warnings arrived
View as a table
| Local hour | Warnings | Of which most severe |
|---|---|---|
| 12am | 124 | 2 |
| 1am | 131 | 2 |
| 2am | 160 | 4 |
| 3am | 94 | 2 |
| 4am | 114 | 4 |
| 5am | 90 | 3 |
| 6am | 120 | 4 |
| 7am | 123 | 4 |
| 8am | 122 | 5 |
| 9am | 155 | 8 |
| 10am | 178 | 17 |
| 11am | 204 | 21 |
| 12pm | 166 | 26 |
| 1pm | 193 | 40 |
| 2pm | 181 | 29 |
| 3pm | 181 | 29 |
| 4pm | 159 | 22 |
| 5pm | 149 | 25 |
| 6pm | 153 | 16 |
| 7pm | 170 | 9 |
| 8pm | 145 | 7 |
| 9pm | 173 | 10 |
| 10pm | 165 | 5 |
| 11pm | 160 | 3 |
The feed repeats itself
View as a table
| Stage | Count |
|---|---|
| Messages received | 9,595 |
| Of which updates | 5,831 |
| Of which cancels | 0 |
| Distinct warnings | 3,610 |
| Counties reached | 2,218 |
How severe they were
- Minor
- Moderate
- Severe
- Extreme
- Not classified
View as a table
| Severity | Warnings |
|---|---|
| Minor | 1,295 |
| Moderate | 780 |
| Severe | 1,194 |
| Extreme | 297 |
| Not classified | 44 |
What people were told to do
- Avoid
- Follow instructions
- Prepare
- Everything else
Where those instructions came from
- Shelter (300) — 7 corroborated as flood, 190 corroborated as tornado, 3 corroborated as wildfire, 2 corroborated as hurricane, 98 with no hazard stated in the alert text
- Evacuate (5) — 1 corroborated as flood, 3 corroborated as wildfire, 1 with no hazard stated in the alert text
View as a table
| Response | Warnings | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Avoid | 1,783 | 49.4% |
| Follow instructions | 510 | 14.1% |
| Prepare | 505 | 14.0% |
| Monitor | 450 | 12.5% |
| Shelter | 300 | 8.3% |
| Unstated | 50 | 1.4% |
| All clear | 7 | 0.2% |
| Evacuate | 5 | 0.1% |
What this report cannot tell you
- This report records the warnings that were sent: when, where, and what people were told to do. It cannot say whether anyone received them, whether they acted, or whether they had anywhere to go.
- Deaths, injuries, damage and acreage come from the news organizations and agencies named beside each figure. Our own records measure warnings, never outcomes, and are never the source for a toll.
- A county is the smallest area these alerts describe, so "a county was warned" does not mean every street in it was at risk.
- Where no figure has been reported, this report says so rather than estimating.
How these numbers were counted
Counted OCT 5, 2026 – OCT 12, 2026 · Frozen at publishThe alert figures in this report — how many warnings, where, when, and how severe — come from the alerts this archive received from FEMA IPAWS and the National Weather Service between October 5, 2026 and October 12, 2026, counted once and frozen when the report was published.
Deaths, damage and acreage are not ours and are never drawn from this archive. Each is attributed to the organization that reported it, above.
What was counted
- cap_status = 'Actual' (tests, exercises and demos excluded)
- SAME test codes RWT/RMT/DMO/NPT/NAT excluded, and any event type containing "test"
- An event is the first message of a CAP identifier chain; updates and cancels are counted separately
- Alert time is cap_sent, falling back to ingest time when the feed omits it
- Counties come from the alert geocodes (SAME/FIPS); statewide codes are not counted as counties
What these numbers cannot tell you
- Lead time is the gap between when an alert was sent and when it takes effect. This archive collapses CAP onset into effective, so for many products those are the same instant by design — it is not a measure of forecast warning time.
- 34 alerts expire exactly 24 hours after they were sent because the feed omitted an expiry and the ingest substitutes a default. They are excluded from the duration distribution rather than charted as real forecasts.
- Evacuation and shelter figures are RESPONSE counts. They record what people were told to do, not what caused it; where the alert text does not name a hazard, the row is reported as unstated.
- Hour-of-day figures use each alert’s own local time, resolved from its state. Alerts spanning several states resolve to the first state in their geocodes.
- National Weather Service alerts began arriving in volume on 2026-06-12. Earlier months hold only the handful that reached this archive by other routes, so they undercount weather alerts badly and cannot be compared with later months.
- Population figures are not available for these counties, so alert counts are reported per county and never per resident.
This archive
Collection began 2026-03-27. National Weather Service alerts began arriving in volume on 2026-06-12 (a small number reached the archive by other routes from 2026-03-31). Months from 2026-07-01 onward can be compared with each other; earlier ones cannot.
Photographs
The photos come from the reporting each story cites, or from public-domain and openly licensed collections. Each is credited as published and links to the page it came from; none belongs to BePrepared, and each is shown uncropped. To ask for a photo to be removed, write to support@bepreparedsolutions.co.
For newsrooms and researchers
Use these figures
Journalists, emergency managers and researchers are welcome to reuse anything in this report, including the underlying counts, with attribution. Version 1 of these figures is frozen: if a correction changes them, it appears above as a dated note rather than silently replacing what you cited.
BePreparedSolutions.co. "Isaias damages the Southeast as floods and fires displace Californians." Alert Pulse, October 13, 2026. https://bepreparedsolutions.co/reports/alert-pulse/week-2026-10-05
Source: BePrepared Solutions, Alert Pulse (2026). Alert counts from FEMA IPAWS and National Weather Service feeds; casualty and damage figures as attributed in the report.
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